Dealer probability - one deck
This is a probability chart to let you know what are your chances of winning or busting on a one deck blackjack game.
| 1 Deck - Dealer Stands on Soft 17 | |||||||
| Dealer’s up Card | Dealer’s Final Total | ||||||
| 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust | ||
| Ace | 0.183786 | 0.19089 | 0.18868 | 0.191692 | 0.075137 | 0.169815 | |
| 2 | 0.138976 | 0.131762 | 0.131815 | 0.123948 | 0.120526 | 0.352973 | |
| 3 | 0.130313 | 0.130946 | 0.123761 | 0.123345 | 0.116047 | 0.375588 | |
| 4 | 0.130973 | 0.114163 | 0.120679 | 0.116286 | 0.115096 | 0.402803 | |
| 5 | 0.119687 | 0.123483 | 0.116909 | 0.104694 | 0.106321 | 0.428905 | |
| 6 | 0.166948 | 0.106454 | 0.107192 | 0.100705 | 0.097879 | 0.420823 | |
| 7 | 0.372345 | 0.138583 | 0.077334 | 0.078897 | 0.072987 | 0.259854 | |
| 8 | 0.130857 | 0.362989 | 0.129445 | 0.06829 | 0.069791 | 0.238627 | |
| 9 | 0.121886 | 0.103921 | 0.357391 | 0.12225 | 0.061109 | 0.233442 | |
| 10 | 0.124156 | 0.122486 | 0.124421 | 0.356869 | 0.03957 | 0.232499 | |
| All | 0.153225 | 0.145065 | 0.141657 | 0.184722 | 0.077364 | 0.297967 | |
Playing two hands or one
Question: For the average player, is there any mathematical advantage to playing two hands of blackjack versus one?
Answer: A skilled player using perfect basic strategy gives up the same approximately one-half percent edge to the casino on both hands. A card counter might actually gain a small advantage over the house by playing an additional hand. But if you are the Average Joe, you will reap exactly the same results on both hands, minus approximately 5% to the house — no edge whatsoever.
An added drawback when playing more than one spot is that you will be dealt more hands per hour. The casino’s commanding edge over the Average Joe’s play is reason enough not to be playing two spots. You are just as likely to keep on losing — but at a faster clip playing two hands.
The key advantage for playing two hands occurs only for card counters. If the deck is positive, counters, knowing they have an edge on the next hand, typically play more than one spot. Because they are playing two spots instead of one, they have twice as much chance of getting the high value cards as the dealer has.
How to play pairs
If you have a pair of Aces or Eights: Always split.
If you have a pair of twos or threes: Split if the dealer has 2 - 7, otherwise hit.
If you have a pair of fours: Split if the dealer has 5 or 6 - otherwise hit.
If you have a pair of fives: Double if the dealer has 2 thru 9 - otherwise hit.
If you have a pair of sixes: Split if the dealer has 2 thru 6 - otherwise hit.
If you have a pair of sevens: Split 2 thru 7 - otherwise hit.
If you have a pair of nines: Split 2 thru 6, and 8 or 9. Stand if the dealer has 7, 10 or Ace.
If you have a pair of 10s or face cards: Always Stand.
How to play soft hands
A soft hand is when one of your starting hands contains an ace.
If you have Ace 2 or Ace 3: Double if the dealer has 5 or 6 - otherwise hit.
If you have Ace 4 or Ace 5: Double if the dealer has 4 thru 6 - otherwise hit.
If you have Ace 6: Double if the dealer has 3 thru 6 - otherwise hit.
If you have Ace 7: Stand if the dealer has 2, 7 or 8. Double 3 -thru 6 - otherwise hit.
If you have Ace 8 or Ace 9: Always Stand.
How to play hard hands
A hard hand in Blackjack is two starting cards that do not contain an ace.
If you have eight or less, always hit.
If you have nine: Double if the dealer has 3 thru 6 - otherwise hit.
If you have 10 : Double if the dealer has 2 thru 9 - otherwise hit.
If you have 11: Double if the dealer has 2 thru 10, hit if dealer has Ace.
If you have 12: Hit if the dealer has 2 or 3,
stand if the dealer has 4 thru 6, otherwise hit.
If you have 13-16: Stand if the dealer has 2 through 6, otherwise hit.
If you have 17 - 21: Always stand.
Colorado limit increase shot down for now
One attempt to raise the betting limit at Colorado casinos is dead, but another one is still alive.
A Colorado Senate committee last week rejected a proposal to ask voters to get rid of the $5 limit. Lawmakers expressed concern that so many issues may be on the November ballot that voters will kill most of them.
But a petition drive is planned to get an initiative on the ballot that would raise the bet limit to $100, expand casino hours and add roulette and craps games. Currently, casinos may offer only blackjack, poker and slot machines.
Increasing the bet limit would mean extra tax revenue.
Should you get insurance?
First off, what is blackjack insurance: It’s if the dealer shows an ace, you can opt to “insure yourself”, in the case that the dealer has a 10 or a face card concealed.
If indeed the dealer’s card is a 10 or a face card, you get your insurance bet back, and get paid at 2-1 odds. However, if the dealer has a card that’s not a 10 or a face card, you lose your insurance bet.
Simply put: insurance is a bad idea. The percentages are still highly with you that a face card or 10 won’t be the other card (do the math).
Benefits of blackjack
Blackjack, along with video poker, is one of the only casino games where your decisions actually have an effect on your chances of winning. No other casino game offers this level of strategic thought, and in fact, a skilled blackjack player can actually tilt the odds in his favor.
Even if you’re only a partially skilled player, knowing basic strategy only, you can reduce the house edge to just 0.5%. This makes blackjack one of the best bets in the casino, even if you don’t count cards.
Test your BlackJack knowhow…
Found an interesting 5 question test we thought any blackjack beginner should take:
For all hands, assume a six-deck game in which the dealer stands on all 17s, you may split and resplit any pair except Aces, which you may split only once, may double down on any first two cards, and may double down after splitting a pair.
1) You have a pair of 8s. The dealer has a 10 face up.
A. Hit.
B. Stand.
C. Split the pair.
2) You have a 9 and a 7. The dealer has a 7 face up.
A. Hit.
B. Stand.
C. Hit if the dealer has been hot, stand if the dealer has been busting a lot.
3) You have an Ace and a 7. The dealer has a 10 face up.
A. Hit.
B. Stand.
C. Double down.
4) You have a 7 and a 5. The dealer has a 2 face up.
A. Hit.
B. Stand.
C. Stand if you’re sitting at third base, hit from any other position.
5) You have an Ace and a 6. The dealer has a 7 face up.
A. Hit.
B. Stand
C. Double Down
Answers
1) C. Dealt 8-8 against a dealer’s 10, split the pair. The best play with a pair of 8s is to split no matter what the dealer has face up. That’s a concept most players can handle until they see the dealer turn a 10 face up. Then they get cold feet. “Why split when the dealer probably has a 20,” I’ve been asked. “I’m just setting myself to lose two bets.”
Well, the dealer doesn’t “probably” have a 20. The face down will be another 10 value only about a third of the times we have a chance to split. (We know the down card isn’t an Ace because the dealer checks the down card with a 10 up, and takes our money without opportunity to split if there’s an Ace down to complete a blackjack.)
The choice remains to play the hand as a 16, or make a second bet and start two hands with 8s. Even though you’re betting twice as much money to split, in the long run you’ll lose only half as much by making the split.
2) A. Dealt 9-7 or any other hard 16 against a dealer’s 7, hit. This is not a close call, although players seem to think it is. “I’ll give the dealer a chance to bust his 7″ is something I’ve heard time and again. Problem is, the dealer busts with a 7 face up only 26 percent of the time.
It’s actually more important to hit 16 against a dealer’s 7 than against a 10. That’s because on the occasions you draw a low card, you have a greater chance of beating a dealer hand that doesn’t bust than when the dealer starts with 10. Card counters know there are some common situations when it pays to stand on 16 vs. 10. Not so when the dealer has a 7,
3) A. Dealt Ace-7 when the dealer has a 10 face up, hit. The same goes for Ace-7 when the dealer has a 9 or an Ace up. Your soft 18 will lose more often than it wins, but you can improve your chances a bit by hitting. Even if you draw a bad card from 4 through 8, you get another chance to hit,
4) A. Dealt a 7 and a 5 when a dealer has 2 up, hit. Even including multiple draws, the dealer busts only 35 percent of the time when starting with 2. Your best chance to win this hand is to hit.
Some players are reluctant hit when sitting at third base. They fear taking the dealer’s bust card and costing the whole table money. Two points: You don’t know whether a bust card is coming, and you’re as likely to help the table as hurt it by hitting. Second, unless the other players are reimbursing you for a lost wager if you stand, you owe them nothing. Make the best play for your own hand.
5) A. Dealt Ace-6 against a dealer’s 7, hit. Most players I see today know not to stand on soft 17, even if they don’t get the fine point that they should double down when the dealer shows a 3 through 6. But some hit the wall when the dealer has a 7. Maybe they’re assuming the dealer has a 10 down, and are willing to have their 17 push a dealer’s 17. The dealer has a 10 down only 30.8 percent of the time, though. The best a player 17 can do if the dealer doesn’t bust is to push — the player can’t win the 74 percent of the time the dealer makes a 17 or better.
Test thanks to John Grochowski from the Detroit News.
Camouflage Betting
The easiest way for the house to detect a blackjack card counter is to watch their betting patterns. Counters have to elevate their bet when the count is in there favour, and lower them when the count is against them. This is no secret to the counters, and if they want to be successful they have to play in a manner that wins and throws the blackjack pit boss off their scent in the process. There are other players that change their bets as they play; any player using a progressive betting system will do that.
So the counter has to camouflage his or her betting as they go along. The last thing the casino wants to do is confuse the two, because the progression bettor is sure profit for the house. That means that counters want to appear to be gamblers, and one of the best ways to do that is to appear to be a bit naïve. Any card counter knows basic strategy and will make decisions automatically. Gamblers will be periodically hesitant and will often make the wrong decision in strategy. A smart counter will make the odd mistake to throw off the house. Gamblers throw out bets without careful consideration. Blackjack counters need to calculate the proper bet, so hesitation before betting is another giveaway of the card counter.
You can make the odd mistake in basic strategy decisions, and you can even make some bets that would go against the count. If you’re getting attention from the pit boss you can show him that you’re just temporarily lucky, and don’t know what you’re doing, even if you have to dump a little back to get the heat off you.