Losing Streaks in BlackJack
We’ve all had sessions on the blackjack table where it seems like you can’t win a hand to save your life. The game is supposed to give you near to even odds, with the house only having a half percent edge on you. So how do you explain it when you have string of five, six or seven losing hands in a row?
The thing about winning percentages and house edge is that they only really apply to the house. The house has all the action, and therefore the house edge is accurate for them. But for the player, the win/loss variance will be much more extreme. If you track your play for a long period of time, you will see that the numbers will get closer and closer to the half-percent disadvantage you’re supposed to have.
Individual sessions can be extreme one way or the other. So you can expect to have sessions where multiple losses will occur, as well as sessions where you will be on a huge winning streak. Here’s a chart of the probability of losing multiple hands in a row using Bernoulli’s formula.
Losses in a Row Probability
2 1 in 3
3 1 in 8
4 1 in 18
5 1 in 38
6 1 in 81
7 1 in 168
8 1 in 356
9 1 in 713
10 1 in 1666
11 1 in 3332
12 1 in 9999
I don’t know if this will make anyone feel better about a losing streak, but it will give you some reassurance that it will be a long time before you have another streak as bad as the one you just experienced.
